Rivian has now given a date for the second R2 shift at the Normal plant. When giving his comments on the second quarter investor call, RJ Scaringe stated that the plant is expected to operate on two shifts by the end of the third quarter, making September 30 the deadline.
Javier Varela, Rivian’s Chief Operations Officer, made it clear during the same call. The company does not expect a material volume contribution from the second shift in the third quarter; instead, the effect is seen in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the fact that the second shift was established by September 30 means that people have already started training, not that September suddenly saw a surge in R2 production. The majority of what the second shift builds will be delivered in the fourth quarter.
We raised the staffing aspect of this as early as April 30, after a newly promoted R2 Group Leader stated on LinkedIn that he was increasing the number of people working the night shift, about a week after saleable production began on April 22. At that time, no timeline was given, and there was no confirmation from the company. Still, it was obvious that the necessary arrangements had already been made well before Rivian made any official comments.
Rivian deliberately launched the R2 on a single shift, presenting this decision as related to supplier coordination, since that aspect of the ramp is often underestimated because the entire production line moves at the speed of the supplier furthest behind. Additionally, members of the supply chain team are spending time on-site with suppliers to help manage the ramp-up during the second half of this year and into next year. Taking a narrow approach and getting the process right before doubling shift hours is the conservative way to ramp up, and given how the R1 launch unfolded in 2021, that approach is probably the correct one.
The fact that the second shift is now justifying the money that has already been spent is that the R2 expansion in Normal cost around $1.5 billion, and a plant operating a single shift is now using half of what it paid for. Rivian has stated that Normal is designed to produce 215,000 units per year when operating at full three-shift capacity, with up to 155,000 of those units being R2. A third shift is still planned for 2027, with Georgia coming after that, where the larger-volume aspect will ultimately reside.
For those with a reservation, the practical conclusion is that delivery figures actually increase in the second half of the year. Rivian has raised its full-year delivery target to between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles, covering the R1 and R2 models and the commercial vans, with the increase geared towards the fourth quarter as R2 production increases. This is not a separate statement from the claim about when the shift occurs; it is the same claim stated in terms of delivery figures.
What complicates the situation is trim timing. Rivian stated on the same call that the lower-cost R2 configurations have been pushed back to 2027, with the Premium model now targeted for early next year. An increase in capacity does not mean that the cheaper versions will arrive earlier. In fact, for a great many people who have joined the reservation list, the cheaper version is what has led them to do so. Capacity and configuration availability are two separate limitations, and only one of these is addressed by introducing a night shift.
What is worth watching over the next two months is whether the date stays in place without much surrounding commentary. Rivian has not stated how many people it is hiring for the second shift, or whether it is actually hiring any at all or merely redistributing its current staff, and the company no longer discloses its headcount in Normal as it used to. Thus, the clearest confirmation that the shift is going ahead will come in the same way as the first indication did—through someone quietly changing their job title.
Thank you, Jose. There was a bit of mixed messaging in that Earnings Call. They stated the push-back of the lower trims, as you mention, yet they also reiterated that RAP 1 + LiDAR were still on track for late 2026. So, which is it? lol.